Being Warren Buffett a classroom simulation of the strongstockstrong.pptVIP

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Being Warren Buffett a classroom simulation of the strongstockstrong.ppt

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Being Warren Buffett a classroom simulation of the strongstockstrong.ppt

MOSAIC workshop Nicholas Horton (nhorton@) * Cal Poly Capstone Course John Walker (jwalker@) * Being Warren Buffett Teaching Ethics in Statistics Class Being Warren Buffett Being Warren Buffett Being Warren Buffett Being Warren Buffett: a classroom and computer simulation of the stock market June 30, 2010 Nicholas J. Horton Department of Mathematics and Statistics Smith College, Northampton, MA nhorton@ /~nhorton Acknowledgements and references Activity developed by Robert Stine and Dean Foster (Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania) Published paper: “Being Warren Buffett: A classroom simulation of risk and wealth when investing in the stock market”, The American Statistician (2006), 60:53-60. More information, the handout form and copy of the TAS paper can be found at: /~stine A copy of these notes plus the R code to run the simulation and results from 5000 simulations can be found at: /~nhorton/buffett Horton - MOSAIC Being Warren Buffett * Overview The concepts of expected value and variance are challenging for students A hands-on simulation can help to fix these ideas, in the context of the stock market Allows students to experience variance first-hand, in a setting where long tails exist Can be implemented using dice (and calculators) in a classroom setting Computer generation of results complements and extends the analytic and hand simulations Horton - MOSAIC Being Warren Buffett * Objectives Understanding discrete random variables to model stock market returns Calculate and interpret expectations for return from a given investment strategy Calculate and interpret standard deviations of returns from a given investment strategy Compare the risk and return for these strategies Spark thinking about diversification and rebalancing of investments Build complementary empirical and analytic problem solving skills Horton - MOSAIC Being Warren Buffett * Background information Imagine that you have $1000 to invest in the stock market, for 20 years Three in