第八章管理决策分析法解析.ppt

* Figure 18.3 The pattern of inventory levels over time assumed by the basic EOQ model, where the order quantity Q is the decision variable. * * Table 18.2 The quantity discounts being offered to ACT. * * Table 18.3 The unit holding cost for ACT’s various discount categories. * Figure 18.10 The curve of total variable cost (TVC) versus order quantity (Q) for each discount category, where the solid part of the curve extends over the feasible range of order quantities. The feasible minimum occurs at Q = 750, with TVC = $121,279. * Table 18.4 A cost comparison of the best order quantities for the respective discount categories. 20 21 22 23 24 25 期望值准则及其分析方法 根据不同方案的损益期望值，选取具有最大收益期望值或最小损失期望值的。 每一方案的损益期望值记作 决策目标为最大收益时，选择大者。 决策目标为最小损失时，选择小者。 决策表法 计算出各方案损益期望值，经比较后择优。 状态Sj Wij 方案Ai 市场需求 (千克/天) 收益期望值 0 100 200 300 400 进货量 (千克/天) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 100 -300 1000 1000 1000 1000 870 200 -600 700 2000 2000 2000 1480 300 -900 400 1700 3000 3000 1570 400 -1200 100 1400 2700 4000 1400 概率Pj 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 最大期望收益 Example of a Decision Tree Problem A glass factory specializing in crystal is experiencing a substantial backlog （欠货）, and the firms management is considering three courses of action: A) Arrange for subcontracting （分包） B) Construct new facilities C) Do nothing (no change) The correct choice depends largely upon demand, which may be low, medium, or high. By consensus, management estimates the respective demand probabilities as 0.1, 0.5, and 0.4. Example of a Decision Tree Problem: The Payoff Table The management also estimates the profits when choosing from the three alternatives (A, B, and C) under the differing probable levels of demand: Step 1. drawing the three decisions A B C Step 2. Add our possible states of nature, probabilities, and payoffs A B C High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) $90k $50k $10k High demand (0.4) Medium demand (0.5) Low demand (0.1) $200k $25k -$120k High demand (0.4) Medium dem