金融数值计算分析报告.ppt

CHAPTER 1products and markets In this Chapter the time value of money an introduction to equities, commodities, currencies and indices fixed and floating interest rates futures and forwards no-arbitrage, one of the main building blocks of finance theory The simplest concept in finance is that of the time value of money; $1 today is worth more than $1 in a year’s time. This is because of all the things we can do with $1 over the next year. Simple interest is when the interest you receive is based only on the amount you invest initially, whereas compound interest is when you also get interest on your interest. Compound interest is the main case of relevance. And compound interest comes in two forms, discretely compounded and continuously compounded. Simple interest: discretely compounded continuously compounded. EQUITIES: The most basic of financial instruments is the equity, stock or share. This is the ownership of a small piece of a company. The behavior of the quoted prices of stocks is far from being predictable. If we could predict the behavior of stock prices in the future then we could become very rich. Although many people have claimed to be able to predict prices with varying degrees of accuracy, no one has yet made a completely convincing case. In this book I am going to take the point of view that prices have a large element of randomness. This does not mean that we cannot model stock prices, but it does mean that the modeling must be done in a probabilistic sense. One of the simplest random processes is the tossing of a coin. 问题1：用扔硬币的方式模拟股价运动。 To the average investor the value in holding the stock comes from the dividends and any growth in the stock’s value. COMMODITIES： Commodities are usually raw products such as precious metals, oil, food products etc. The prices of these products are unpredictable but often show seasonal effects. Scarcity of the product results in higher prices. Commodities are usually traded by people who hav