基于灰色预测的光伏组件阴影类型诊断的研究.pdfVIP

第38 卷 第12 期 电 网 技 术 Vol. 38 No. 12 2014 年12 月 Power System Technology Dec. 2014 文章编号：1000-3673 （2014 ）12-3293-07 中图分类号：TM 721 文献标志码：A 学科代码：470·4051 基于灰色预测的光伏组件阴影类型诊断研究 陈雪娟，吴春华，李智华，袁同浩，冯夏云 （上海市电站自动化技术重点实验室(上海大学) ，上海市 闸北区 200072 ） A Gray Prediction Based Diagnosis on Shadow Types Over Photovoltaic Modules CHEN Xuejuan, WU Chunhua, LI Zhihua, YUAN Tonghao, FENG Xiaoyun (Shanghai Key Laboratory of Power Station Automation Technology (Shanghai University), Zhabei District, Shanghai 200072, China) ABSTRACT: In allusion to the fact that it is hard to 环境的影响。而建筑物阴影、落叶、鸟类排泄物， distinguish the shadow types over photovoltaic (PV) modules, 甚至是光伏组件自身形成的热斑对光伏组件发电 a gray prediction based method to distinguish the soft shadow 效率都会带来不可忽视的影响。这些情况会对光伏 from the hard shadow over PV modules is proposed. Firstly, the 电池输出特性产生巨大变化，从而使光伏系统效率 precondition that the gray prediction has to achieve is analyzed 严重降低[1-3] 。软性阴影是由于云层飘过或是树木等 by wavelet theory; then the gray prediction GM(1,1) is improved and it is proposed to predict the power output of PV 遮挡，在光伏组件表面留下投影，这类阴影一般不 modules by metabolic GM(1,1); finally, the error analysis on 可人为控制；而硬性阴影则是由于散落于光伏组件 both predicted results and measured results is performed, and 表面的污物形成，该类阴影可以根据情况进行人为 based on the obtained model accuracy difference the nature of 干预，使光伏组件表面达到洁净状态，恢复正常的 the shadow can be judged. It is proved by simulation and 工作状态，提高发电量。而现代光伏建筑一体化 experiments that as for the soft shadow and the hard shadow (building integrated photovoltaic，BIPV)盛行，安装 there are obvious differences in the accuracy classes predicted