广东海域模拟人和无动力渔船海上漂移试验的研究.pdfVIP

热带海洋学报 JOURNAL OF TROPICAL OCEANOGRAPHY 2013 年 第 32 卷 第 1 期: 87−94 海洋运输 doi:10.3969/j.issn.1009-5470.2013.01.013 广东海域模拟人和无动力渔船海上漂移试验研究 周水华 1, 杨阳 2 , 冯伟忠 1 1. 国家海洋局南海预报中心, 广东 广州 510310 ； 2. 国家海洋局南海海洋工程勘察中心, 广东 广州 510310 摘要: 为探讨海上搜救目标无动力渔船和落水人员在海水中的漂移规律，对现有海上搜救目标漂移轨迹预测模型 进行评估与改进，国家海洋局南海海洋工程勘察中心于2011 年2 月和4 月在广东近岸海域开展了3 组模拟人和2 组无动力船海上漂移试验。试验发现模拟人与无动力船大部分时刻的漂移轨迹位于下风向的右侧，80%以上的时 刻漂移轨迹位于海流流向和下风向的矢量合成区间内。以漂移速度为应变量，流速和风速为自变量进行二元回归 分析发现，广东海域的模拟人和无动力渔船的流致漂移参数约为 1.0，风致漂移参数分别为0.019 和0.038 。 关键词: 拟人；无动力船；漂移速度； 风致漂移参数； 流致漂移参数 中图分类号 + : U676.8 3; P731.21; P732.15 文献标识码: A 文章编号: 1009-5470(2013)01-0087-08 Drift trials of dummy and fishing boats in Guangdong coast waters 1 2 1 ZHOU Shui-hua , YANG Yang , FENG Wei-zhong 1. South China Sea Marine Forecast Center of State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou 510310, China ; 2. South China Sea Marine Engineering Investigation Center of State Oceanic Administration, Guangzhou 510310, China Abstract: To explore the drifting character of fishing boats without working motors and people in the water is the target of maritime search and rescue. For improving and evaluating their target drifting trajectory prediction model, researchers at the South China Sea Marine Engineering Investigation Center of the State Oceanic Administration carried out 2−3 trials in Guangdong coast waters: two times for fishing boats without working motors, and three times for dummy in the water on February 2011 and April 2011. These trials found that the dummy and fishing boats mostly drifted to the right of the downwind, and between the directions of current and downwind more than 80% of the total test times. By binary regression analysis on drift velocity (a dependent variable), current velocity and wind speed (a