国际经济学6关税与非关税壁垒方案.ppt

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * 凯恩斯主义的贸易保护观点 一、凯恩斯的贸易保护观点 基本观点： 重商主义的“奖出限入”政策有其合理之处； 在一国有效需求不足的情况下，政府应该干预对外贸易，保持贸易顺差，以扩大有效需求。 二、后凯恩斯主义的贸易保护观点 基本观点：保持贸易收支顺差不仅能够在理论上扩大本国的有效需求，而且能够以乘数的形式增加总收入。 战略性贸易政策 战略性贸易政策：主张通过暂时的贸易保护、补贴、税收优惠等在半导体、计算机、远程通信和其他被认为对该国至关重要的领域内创造出比较优势。 这些领域风险高，但成功后外部性强。 博弈论与战略性贸易政策 博弈论分析战略性贸易政策 两家公司竞争与战略性贸易政策 波 音 生产 不生产 空中客车 生产 不生产 -1000，-1000 1亿， 0 0， 1亿 0， 0 战略性贸易政策 难选择赢家 国家之间实行战略性贸易政策，效果会相互抵消 以邻为壑，导致报复 保护的非经济动机 国防 国家荣誉 对外政策 Cases 1980s, in the us, 25% tariff on imports of compact trucks coming from Japan Temporary Declining tariff beginning at 45% on imports of heavyweight motorcycles from Japan Cont’d In June 1980, United Automobile Workers and Ford Motor Company applies petition to the ITC under section 201 of the US ITC determined that the US recession was a more important cause of injury in autos than were increased imports, rejected the petition. Cont’d Several congressmen from mid western states continued to pursue import limits by other means For cars from Japan, this protection took the form of VER For trucks, raised tariff from 4% to 25%. For heavyweight motorcycles, petitioned by Harley-Davidson, according to ITC ‘s judge that the high level of inventories in the US held by Japanese producers was a threat to the domestic industry The protection took the form of a five year declining tariff schedule: 45%,35%,20%,15%,10% , effective in April 1983 and end in April 1988 But it ended in 1987 after the 15% rate expired according to Harley- Davidson ‘s petition to ITC. By which time the H-D had cut its costs and introduced new and very popular products. Test Did the Japanese producers absorbed part of the tariff or It fully passed through to US prices? Results In the case of trucks, Of 21% increase, about 12% was passed through to US prices, whereas the other 9% was absorbed by Japanese producers, leading to a terms of trade gains for the US For heavyweight