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* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * André de Silva, Head of Asia-Pacific Rates Research at HSBC, wrote: “Given the slowdown in domestic demand, there is scope for inflation to fall further. More easing, beyond the latest lending rate cut, has to be carried out to bring about a material fall in cost of financing within the system. HSBC Economics expects one more lending rate cut and one more RRR reduction in the second quarter of 2015.” 由于国内需求放缓,通货膨胀还有进一步下滑的余地。除了最近的降低贷款利率,应当执行更多的宽松政策来实质性地降低系统内金融成本。HSBC预测,在2015年第二季度,还会有至少一次贷款利率和法定准备金率的下调。 HSBC 汇丰银行(The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited) The main argument against cutting rates in a rush is that such a policy could risk reigniting a domestic borrowing spree, while also applying an unwelcome amount of pressure on the renminbi to depreciate against the strong US dollar. 反对过分急于降息的主要论点在于,这样的政策有引起国内借贷热潮,同时加大人民币对强势美元贬值的压力。 Nevertheless, with disinflation driving real interest rates higher (the real deposit rate rose to 2.5 per cent in January, the highest level since October 2009, and real interbank interest rates were at a historical high of 4.11 per cent), some cuts are required simply to keep the price of money stable. 然而,随着通货紧缩驱使实际利率上升(一月份,实际存款利率上升到2.5%,是自2009年10月以来最高水平;并且实际同业拆借利率高达历史高点4.11%),需要削减利率来保持货币价格稳定。 interbank interest rates 银行间同业拆借利率 Easing a dangerous industrial profit slump 03 PART3 The other important imperative for Beijing is to cushion the blow for industrial enterprises by cutting their interest burdens, in order to forestall a meltdown in bank asset quality. 为了防止银行贷款质量危机,北京方面的另一个当务之急是通过削减工业企业的利息负担以减轻对其的打击。 The chart to the left shows the precipitous decline in the profits of industrial enterprises at the end of last year. 左边这个图表显示了去年年底工业企业利润急剧下跌的情况。 In December, industrial company profits fell 8.0 per cent year on year, while full-year 2014 profit for state-owned enterprises (SOEs) dropped by 7.8 per cent year on year, and increased a mere 6.9 per cent for the priva
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