第04章公司投资决策.pptVIP

Example of Decision Tree: Stewart Pharmaceuticals The Stewart Pharmaceuticals Corporation is considering investing in developing a drug that cures the common cold. A corporate planning group, including representatives from production, marketing, and engineering, has recommended that the firm go ahead with the test and development phase. This preliminary phase will last one year and cost $1 billion. Furthermore, the group believes that there is a 60% chance that tests will prove successful. If the initial tests are successful, Stewart Pharmaceuticals can go ahead with full-scale production. This investment phase will cost $1.6 billion. Production will occur over the next 4 years. Stewart Pharmaceuticals NPV of Full-Scale Production following Successful Test Note that the NPV is calculated as of date 1, the date at which the investment of $1,600 million is made. Later we bring this number back to date 0. Stewart Pharmaceuticals NPV of Full-Scale Production following Unsuccessful Test Note that the NPV is calculated as of date 1, the date at which the investment of $1,600 million is made. Later we bring this number back to date 0. Decision Tree for Stewart Pharmaceutical Stewart Pharmaceutical: Decision to Test 采用逆向分析法，如果测试成功，显然应该投资，若测试失败则不应投资。公司是否应该投资16亿美元，以期望在1年后以60%的概率获得34亿美元的净现值？ 敏感性分析 当某一不确定变量发生一定幅度变化时，项目投资决策指标（如NPV）将相应发生多大程度的变化，以此判断项目预测风险的大小，以及分析投资决策指标对不确定因素的敏感程度。 Sensitivity Analysis 在前面Stewart Pharmaceuticals 的例子中，若销售额从7000下降到6000（下降 14% ），将导致净现值下降幅度为： Scenario Analysis A variation on sensitivity analysis is scenario analysis. For example, the following three scenarios could apply to Stewart Pharmaceuticals: The next years each have heavy cold seasons, and sales exceed expectations, but labor costs skyrocket. The next years are normal and sales meet expectations. The next years each have lighter than normal cold seasons, so sales fail to meet expectations. For each scenario, calculate the NPV. Break-Even Analysis The project requires an investment of $1,60