经典偏好理论的回剖析.pptVIP

经典偏好理论的回顾 无关替代品独立性（independence of relevant alternative） 本质：决策者对于所有的选择有着完全的有序的偏好。 推广：如果在一个二选一的选项中，X优于Y，那么把选择集合由两个扩大到N个，X仍然优于Y。一个不被看好的选择不会因为选择范围的扩大而变成被看好的选择。 次序性：一个选项被选中的概率P不会因为选择范围的扩大而增加，至多保持不变。 居中不变性：如果在一个二元选择域x和Y中加入一个新的选择z, x y z的价值为xyz或xyz,那么z的引入使y比X丧失更大的“市场份额”。 期望效用理论中的有关决策人偏好的六个公理、期望效用最大化 挑战 关联效度 主要有权衡反差（背景关联、局部关联） 极端逆转（妥协、单极化） ·禀赋效应 ·现状偏见 ·损失厌恶 ·偏好逆转 The principle and the realities the principle of invariance : decision makers should have measurable and stable preferences such as description invariance, procedural invariance When either the format of presentation or the elicitation method is varied, decision makers often display a reversal in preference Specifically, preferences appear to be constructed at the time of judgment, are sensitive to the mode of elicitation, and are susceptible to framing effects。 typical preference reversal In a typical preference reversal experiment, subjects indicate their preference for gambles using two different methods: (1) a direct “choice task” in which the subject indicates the preferred gamble from a pair of gambles directly indicating preference and (2) a “pricing task” in which the subject assigns values to the two gambles and the assigned values indicate preference. P-bet 选项 ＄-bet选项 Preference reversala typical example one example Question one:choose one from A and B A 20% , 4000yuan B 25% , 3000yuan Question two: There is a gamble of two stages. Stage one: 75%,game over and no prize;25%,go on the game. Stage two: choose one from A and B A 80%,4000yuan; B 100%3000yuan One more You have 1000yuan now ,choose one from the following alternatives. A 50%,1000yuan(gain).50%,0yuan(gain) B 100%,500yuan(gain) You have 2000yuan now,choose one from the following alternatives. C 50%1000(lose).50%,0yuan(gain) D100%500(lose) Hypothesis 2.1. The compatibility hypothesis: the weight 、 the response mode、 scale compatibility strategy compatibility Mechanisms： anc