Chapter6 Probability.docVIP

Chapters 6 7: Probability the Normal Distribution Probability and Inferential Statistics Bag: 50 GREEN 50 RED M Ms The bag is a “population” Suppose you select one M M from the bag at random That one M M is a “sample” How likely are you to select a RED M M? What if a second Bag had 90 GREEN 10 RED? How likely are you to select a RED M M this time? The answers to these questions involve the use of probability Probability links populations samples! But, isn’t the goal of inferential stats the opposite? Don’t we usually start with a sample and try to say something about the population? Yes – but, if we know how samples relate to populations, we can use samples to draw inferences about the populations from which they came! Two bags of M M’s: Bag #1: 50 RED and 50 GREEN Bag #2: 90 RED and 10 GREEN Choose 10 M M’s from one of the bags, blindfolded Your “sample” has 7 GREEN and 3 RED How many RED would you have expected from bag #1? How many GREEN would you have expected from bag #1? How many RED would you have expected from bag #2? How many GREEN would you have expected from bag #2? Which bag did your M M’s come from, #1 or #2? This is inferential statistics! What is probability? Event = outcome of a trial Probability: likelihood of an “event” occurring  Typically defined in terms of a fraction or proportion  Can range from 0 (never) to 1.0 (always) Possible “events” referred to as A, B, C, etc. p(A) = Number of outcomes classified as A total number of possible outcomes Probability Examples: 1. Toss a coin, what is probability of heads? p(Heads) = Number of outcomes classified as Heads: 1 Total number of possible outcomes: 2 (Heads or tails) 2. Select a card from a deck. What is probability of Heart? p(Heart) = = Number of outcomes classified as Hearts: 13 hearts in deck Total number of possible outcomes: 52 (cards in deck) Can think of it as a proportion problem: In the whole deck (52), how