欧洲主权债务危机与其对中国对外贸易的影响.pdf

摘 要 摘 要 欧盟与中国建立战略伙伴关系以来，在对外经贸合作中的战略地位日益重要，中国 在欧盟对外贸易中的份额也逐年递增，2004 年欧盟成为中国第一大贸易伙伴，同时中国 也成为仅次于美国的欧盟第二大贸易伙伴。但目前，欧洲主权债务危机已经不是欧洲某 个国家的危机，而是整个欧洲的危机，甚至是全球性的问题，整个欧洲经济及世界经济 都会受到主权债务危机的拖累。 本文主要研究欧洲主权债务危机爆发的原因及其对中国对外贸易的影响。欧债危机 的蔓延将会使得中国对美国、日本等主要贸易伙伴国的对外贸易产生负面影响。本文选 取中国对欧盟、美国、日本的进出口额为被解释变量，中国和欧盟的国内生产总值、人 民币兑换欧元的汇率为解释变量，建立了影响中国进出口贸易的计量模型，对中国进出 口规模影响进行了实证研究，得出了欧洲主权债务危机对中国的出口贸易产生了很大的 消极影响，中国的出口贸易增速将大为放缓，而对中国的进口贸易影响较小；汇率变化 对中国的对外贸易影响最大等结论。最后，从欧洲主权债务危机中得出了中国应转变经 济增长方式、优化经济结构；主权债务规模要适度；建立自己的信用评级体系；优化外 汇储备结构等启示。最后，提出了应对欧洲主权债务危机应提高对外贸易水平、增强中 国对外贸易的能力的对策建议。 关键词 欧洲主权债务危机 对外贸易 贸易规模 贸易结构 I Abstract Abstract The EU establishes a comprehensive strategic partnership with China and the EU strategic position in China’s foreign trade and economic cooperation is increasingly important, and China’s share in the EU’s external trade is also increasingly. In 2004, the EU surpassed the United States and Japan and became China’s largest partner, while China had also become the EU’s second largest trading partner after the United States. At present, the European sovereign debt crisis is not only a European national crisis, but also is becoming the entire European crisis, even a global problem; the whole European economy and the world economy will be dragged down by the sovereign debt crisis ． In order to discuss the reasons for the European sovereign debt crisis, this article studies its impact on China’s external trade. In addition, if the crisis continues spreading will have a tremendous negative impact on the import and export of the United States, Japan and other major trading partners. In further using the volume of China’s exports and imports to the EU, the United States and Japan as dependent variables, China and the EU’s gross domestic product GDP , the annual average exchange rate of RMB against the EURO, and the event of the European sovereign debt crisis as independent variables, analyzes the