A New Multilateralism for the 21st Century.doc

A New Multilateralism for the 21st Century: the Richard Dimbleby Lecture 21世纪新的多边主义：理查德?汀伯比演讲 Christine Lagarde, Managing Director, International Monetary Fund 国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德 London, February 3, 2014 2014年2月3日，伦敦 Good evening. It is a great honor to be invited to deliver this year’s Dimbleby Lecture, and I would like to thank the BBC and the Dimbleby family for so kindly inviting me—and especially David Dimbleby for his warm words of introduction. 各位晚上好。非常荣幸应邀做今年的汀伯比演讲，我要感谢英国广播公司和汀伯比一家的盛情邀请，还要特别感谢大卫·汀伯比热情的介绍辞。 This evening, I would like to talk about the future. Before looking ahead, however, I would like to look back—for the clues to the future can often be read from the tea leaves of the past. 今晚，我想谈谈未来。不过，在展望未来之前，我想回顾一下往昔——正所谓前事不忘，后事之师。 I invite you to cast your minds back to the early months of 1914, exactly a century ago. Much of the world had enjoyed long years of peace, and giant leaps in scientific and technological innovation had led to path-breaking advances in living standards and communications. There were few barriers to trade, travel, or the movement of capital. The future was full of potential. 请大家回忆一下整整一个世纪之前，1914?年初的情景。世界多数地方维持了多年的和平，科学和技术革新的飞跃带来了生活水平和通信能力的巨大提升。当时，贸易、旅行和资本流动的壁垒很少。前路充满了希望。 Yet, 1914 was the gateway to thirty years of disaster—marked by two world wars and the Great Depression. It was the year when everything started to go wrong. What happened? 但是，1914?年是之后三十年大灾难（两次世界大战和大萧条）的起始年。正是在这一年，一切事情都开始往错误的方向走去。到底发生了什么？ What happened was that the birth of the modern industrial society brought about massive dislocation. The world was rife with tension—rivalry between nations, upsetting the traditional balance of power, and inequality between the haves and have-nots, whether in the form of colonialism or the sunken prospects of the uneducated working classes. 当时，现代工业社会的诞生带来了大规模的社会错位。各种紧张关系此起彼伏——国家间的敌对打乱了传统的力量平衡，有产者与无产者的不平等（不论是体现在殖民主义的冲突，还是体现在未受教育劳动阶级的悲惨前途）愈发严重。 By 1914, these imbalances had toppled over into outright conflict. In the years to