Operational Hurricane Model Diagnostics at EMC.pptVIP

Operational Hurricane Model Diagnostics at EMC Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Workshop NHC, Miami, FL 4 May 2009 – 6 May 2009 Vijay Tallapragada, N. Surgi, R. Tuleya, Q. Liu, Y. Kwon, Z. Zhang, J. O’Connor Environmental Modeling Center National Centers for Environmental Prediction 5200 Auth Road, Camp Springs, MD 20746. Draft Plan for HFIP Hurricane Model Diagnostics at EMC Diagnostics to address track and intensity forecasts from operational hurricane models Evaluation of mean layer flow and steering currents for track forecasts Evaluation of shear patterns for intensity and intensity change forecasts Impact of ocean coupling through analysis of surface fluxes, SST, MLD, heat content etc. Diagnostics specific to Eastern Pacific storms Wind-pressure relationship Hurricane Diagnostics Ongoing and continuous efforts to develop a system for comprehensive model diagnostics for hurricane forecasts Primary tasks include: Evaluation of initial storm structure analyzed , Vortex evolution in the forecasts, Representation of large-scale flow in HWRF and GFDL compared to the GFS Impact of boundary conditions, domain configurations Impact of physics, ocean feedback, horizontal and vertical resolution Evaluation of derived diagnostic products including energy, angular momentum and PV budgets Collaborative effort with Mark DeMaria Diagnostic Tools: HPLOT Developed GUI based plotting program HPLOT based on initial version developed by Tim Marchok and adapted for HWRF by Marshall Stoner that allows visualization of several diagnostic components of the forecasts. Allows comparison of HWRF forecasts with other model forecasts as well as analysis/observations side by side including difference plots on a uniform grid Diagnostic measures include mean layer wind, vertical and zonal shear components, skew-T diagrams etc. Additional capabilities to compute statistical measures RMS errors, anomaly correlation etc. as well as filtering of storm component for evalua