Scenario Planning ofEnergy-related Crises in East Asia.pptVIP

Scenario Planning of Energy-related Crises in East Asia International Energy Workshop 2005 July 5-7, 2005 Kyoto Table of Contents Introduction Scenario Planning Energy Problems in East Asia Purposes of this Study Scenario Analysis of Energy-related Crises in East Asia Analysis of Risk factors Crisis scenarios:  ‘Resource Competition’ Scenario ‘Isolated Japan’ Scenario Policy Implications Viewpoints needed for Japan’s ST Strategy Scenario Planning It is not a forecast. Future is uncertain and unknown.　ex. international relations, social trends, technological development??? Experts from a variety of fields, analyze the present situation and risks for the future; identify the most critical factors; and, develop scenarios for possible images of the future. It enables us to understand the structure of the possibilities of the future, to make proper decisions, to adapt quickly to the environmental changes. Scenario Planning for ST Policy Design To develop a robust strategy that can accommodate many possibilities of the future;→A long-term strategy is needed for RD To extract new needs for RD strategy from scenarios; To evaluate individual RD themes from scenarios. East Asia’s Energy Problems Growing Energy Demand especially China and India Increasing dependency on imported oil over 75% in 2020, especially from Middle Eastern Countries ↓ High Energy Price Decline in the economic and political power of the East Asian Countries International Conflicts over Energy Resources Purposes of this study To understand risks for energy crises in East Asia using scenario planning To evaluate RD themes from the following viewpoints Contributing to energy security in East AsiaJapan, a industrialized country in Asia, which is almost 100% dependent on imports for its energy supply, should seek to avoid energy crises in cooperation with the East Asian countries. Maintaining security and welfare of Japan It’s paramount that Japan’s national security and prosp