全球化时代的大国大城市.doc

首位城市该多大？ ——国家规模、全球化和城市化的影响 陈钊 陆铭* 摘要：一个国家总人口规模决定其首位城市有多大在全球142个国家（经济体）的样本中，仅仅国家人口规模这一个变量便可以解释该国首位城市人口规模的84.64%，全球化和城市化的进程更是会加强人口向首位城市的集聚。根据研究结论，上海将成为全球最大城市。城市规划和公共政策人口增长科学预测基础。 关键词：首位城市、人口规模、全球化、城市化 The Effects of National Population, Globalization and Urbanization Zhao CHEN and Ming LU Abstract: This paper studies how a primary city’s population is determined using a cross-country data set, which is a key issue to understand the spatial distribution of a country’s population. We find that a country’s total population is the most important determinant of its primary city’s populat