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China as a Leader of the World Economy FGVEPGE中国作为一个世界经济的领导者fgvepge.ppt

China as a Leader of the World Economy FGVEPGE中国作为一个世界经济的领导者fgvepge.ppt

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China as a Leader of the World Economy Gregory C Chow Princeton University March 2011 * Outline 1. How did China manage to grow so rapidly 2. China’s Economic Strength 3. Comparing Chinas market institutions with US institutions 4. Chinas short-term economic policies 5. China’s long-term economic policies 6. Role of China as a leader in the world economy * 1. How did China manage to grow so rapidly Three fundamental factors contributing to rapid economic growth: high-quality human capital; functioning market institutions; early stage of development that enables China to catch up. Government policy of gradualism for reform correct, part of human capital. Today it is entrepreneurship that propels China economic changes and innovations. Growth will continue as long as the three fundamental factors remain, given political stability, also part of human capital. * 2. Chinas economic strength GDP to exceed US in the current decade In 2010 Chinas GDP equaled to .692 of the US GDP in purchasing power parity as IMF and World Bank estimated. From 2011 assume US real GDP to grow as much as 3.5 percent per year, and Chinas GDP to grow at 8 percent per year. By 2019 China’s GDP will exceed the US GDP. * Other signs of China’s economic strength In technology it has the fastest supercomputer. In 2011 China will file more patents than the US. In the production of alternative energy, it is the worlds largest producer of wind energy, nuclear energy and solar panels. Consumer goods produced by China flood the world market. Chinese tourists are seen travelling all over the world and making expensive purchases. From mostly receiving foreign investment China has increased its investment abroad rapidly. * 3. Chinas market institutions as compared with the US institutions US institutional weaknesses as shown by the housing bubble and economic downturn. US financial institutions allowed to take too much risk in the trading of derivatives and in packaging home mortgages as securities f

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