CLIMATE CHANGE What We Know and What We Dont气候改变了我们所知道的和我们不知道的.ppt

CLIMATE CHANGE: What We Know and What We Dont Know Baased on a Presentation by Daniel L. Albritton, Director of NOAA Aeronomy Laboratory, during early 2001. There is a natural Greenhouse Effect. It keeps the earth warmer than it would be otherwise. Our planet’s atmosphere is composed of: 78% Nitrogen 20% Oxygen *2% Water Vapor (*greenhouse gas) *0.03% Carbon Dioxide (*greenhouse gas) It warms up and... It emits infrared light (heat) Water Vapor and Carbon Dioxide have been part of our atmosphere for millions of years. They cause an average surface temperature of about 60oF. Without them, the average would be about 5oF. Greenhouse gases are increasing in the atmosphere because of human activities, and they are increasingly trapping more heat. -Carbon Dioxide has increased by 31% between 1800 and 2000, as measured by ice cores and air samples -Other gases have increased, too: Methane Sulfur There is a collective picture of a warming world, and human activities have likely contributed. -Global temperatures are up 0.7 - 1.4 oF over the past 100 years -Which seems to be causing: Glacial retreat Snow-cover decrease Freeze-free periods ????lengthened Sea-level increased 4-8 inches What could this mean for the Earth’s future? Carbon Dioxide abundancewill likely double before 2100 Predicted climate responses:??? Global temperature rise of 2.5 - 10 oF by 2100 If so, this would exceed the natural changes over the past 10,000 years Sea level rise of 4 - 35 inches by 2100 We live on a complex planet and we have imperfect knowledge; so, we can’t predict the future very well. We can’t predict a small area’s changes, but possibly a continent’s changes: Temperatures may increase ????as much as 40% above average Mid-continent soil may experience ????increased drying A warmer world may mean heavier rains, ????with large differences between regions It’s much tougher to call if hurricanes ????will be more or less frequent BOT