改革国际评级体系推动世界经济复苏(英文版).doc

Reform the International Rating System to Promote the World Economic Recovery Guan Jianzhong Although the international community has adopted a series of bailout actions to the global credit crisis since 2008, it is still uncertain about the deepening and spreading of the crisis, making it difficult to predict the prospects of the world economy. It is the most urgent task for the contemporary human society to explore the complicated origin of the crisis and choose the correct approach for the world economic recovery. While studying the inherent law governing the formation, development and conclusion of the global credit crisis from the perspective of credit relationship, one discovers that two pairs of contradictions, namely the contradiction between production and credit and the one between credit and rating, are the impetus to drive the development of contemporary world economy. The nature of continuous expansion of production requires that consumption increase is promoted by increasing the credit demand, and the inherent requirement of the movement of this pair of contradictions is the pro-cyclical development of the credit; the subjects of credit are creditors and debtors, and the precondition for creditors and debtors to establish a credit relationship is that creditors require that ratings are assigned for debtors on their maximum debt ceiling underpinned by their real wealth creation capability, the inherent requirement of the movement of this pair of contradictions is the counter-cyclical development of the credit. Therefore, of these two pairs of contradictions, credit and rating constitute the principal contradiction, and rating is the principal aspect in the principal contradiction. The current international rating system has failed to follow this law; rather, it violates the principle that credit increase must be based on the capability of real wealth creation, complies with the needs of movement of the contradiction between production and the cred