太阳能组合功率预测.doc

上海电力学院 本科毕业设计（论文） 题 目： 太阳能组合功率预测 院 部： 电气工程学院 专业年级： 电力工程与管理2015届 学生姓名： 陈骏 学号： 指导教师： 李芬 2015年5月11日 【摘要】 太阳能光伏发电一种源。光伏输出功率预测对保持电力系统的功率平衡和经济运行有重要意义。利用光伏发电有的优点：1结构简单体积小。2安装建设周期短。3维护简单。4清洁安全。5用范围可靠性高寿命长。光伏发电受太阳辐射强度和一些随机因素影响【Abstract】As a new renewable energy, solar energy generation is a kind of effective alternative to fossil energy and other non renewable energy.. The output power forecast of photovoltaic power generation system is significant for maintaining the power balance and economic operation of power system.. Use of photovoltaic power generation has some of the following advantages: 1, simple structure, small size. 2, transportation and installation convenient and short construction cycle. 3, easy to use maintenance simple. 4, no noise, clean security. 5, wide application range, high reliability and long life. However, photovoltaic power system generation by solar radiation intensity, temperature, the influence of atmospheric parameters and random factors, according to meteorological conditions can be used to analyze and predict the amount of solar power, on the grid system scheduling and load distribution is very important. This paper introduces several photovoltaic power prediction method, analysis of the impact of photovoltaic power generation solar total radiation, temperature, sunshine time and relative humidity various meteorological factors. Established three generating capacity prediction model, and on the basis of comparison and analysis of the establishment of prediction model based on the power of the combination of Iowa operator, and the predictive effect of the model evaluation results show that the model can improve the prediction accuracy. Key Words：Photovoltaic power generation; power forecast; combination model 2　基于IOWA算子的组合预测模型 12 2.1 IOWA算子 13 2.2 组合预测模型建模步骤 13 3　三种预测模型 15 3.1　多元线性回归模型 15 3.2　多变量时间序列模型 17 3.3　支持向量机模型 19 4　模型建立 21 4.1 变量选取与数据预处理 21 4.2 多元线性回归模型 22 4.3 CAR多变量时间序列模型 24