客票预售期论文铁路客票预售期制定及动态优化计算系统研究..doc

客票预售期论文：铁路客票预售期制定及动态优化计算系统研究 【中文摘要】铁路运输是国民经济活动和大众出行的骨干运输方式。在客流高峰期间,为了最大限度地满足广大人民在旅行上的需求,迅速有效地疏散客流,需要铁路部门要制定合理的售票组织工作方案,而售票组织工作中关键问题之一是制定合理的客票预售期。合理的客票预售期能迅速有效地疏散高峰客流,给旅客出行计划带来便利,有利于能遏制“票贩子”的倒票行为,提高铁路部门的经济效益和社会效益。本论文对客票预售期制定的研究,是在一定的旅客运输计划或客运组织方案前提下,面向高峰客流、突发事件以及票贩倒票行为等主要问题。论文从铁路客票预售期制定系统总体考虑,首先论证了客票预售期制定的必要性,阐述了系统设计和建设应遵循的原则、系统目标、结构以及实施的构想；分析了客票预售期的影响因素及影响预售期长短的多因素作用机制,提出了铁路客票预售期优化计算系统的总体方案。论文以比较论证、逐步深入的方式,运用协整理论、多元一阶GM(1,N)理论、组合协整与多元一阶GM(1,N)理论,分别建立了客票预售期优化计算模型,并针对车站现场实际情况,选择适当的优化计算方法,应用PowerBuilder9.0和Microsoft SQL Server2000,研制开发出初步的铁路客票预售期管理信息系统,为铁路售票组织工作提供决策支持。论文还结合上述工作,就系统实施的必要条件及客运组织方面的改革提出了建议。 【英文摘要】Railway transport is the main mode of transport of the national economic activities and the general public travel. In the peak passenger flow period, in order to satisfy the majority of the people in the travel demand, passenger evacuation quickly and effectively, need to make reasonable ticket to the railway department organization, and organization of the ticket the most crucial problem is to formulate a reasonable ticket preselling time,reasonable ticket preselling time to evacuate quickly and effectively the peak passenger flow, passenger travel plans to bring convenience, to curb the “ticket scalper “ of scalping ticket’s behavior and improving the railway departmnet’s economic and social benefits.In this thesis, research on the railway ticket preselling time interval, it is based on passenger transportation plan or passenger transportation organization, for the peak passenger flow, emergency and the ticket scalper of scalping ticket’s behavior and the main issues. This thesis develope from a railway ticket preselling time to consider the overall system, first demonstrated the need to develop ticket preselling time. Describes the design and construction should follow the principles, system objectives, structure and implementation of the vision.Analysis of impact factors of ticket preselling time and ticket preselling time mechanism of multi-factor, propose