汇率和对外直接投资动因理论.docVIP

摘 要 对外直接投资是指企业以跨国经营的方式所形成的国际间资本流动，其动机包括：获取原材料、寻求知识、降低成本、学习技术和规避贸易壁垒等。对外直接投资在促进经济增长、贸易增加、优化产业结构和带动就业等方面都起到了积极的推动作用。作为世界第二大经济强国的日本，其对外直接投资始于20世纪80年代中期，此后快速发展，步入对外直接投资大国的行列。汇率是一国货币兑换另一国货币的比率，汇率的变动对一国的进出口额、物价水平和资本流动都有重要影响，既能调节一国的国际收支，又能作为宏观调控的重要手段。1985年广场协议之后，日元大幅度升值，而后90年代的泡沫危机、亚洲金融危机和近年来的国际金融危机都使得日元汇率频繁波动。 汇率波动与OFDI之间的关系一直是国内外经济学家争论的焦点，至今也没有形成系统的理论体系。本文首先梳理国内外学者的研究文献，进行总结和评述；然后回顾广场协议之后日元汇率波动历史和对外直接投资的情况，从宏观整体上简单分析；接下来阐述对外直接投资动因理论和汇率决定理论，在此基础上分析汇率波动对OFDI影响的传导机制。最后一部分是实证检验，先建立实证模型，然后分别回归日元汇率波动对美国和中国投资的影响的方程，进行实证结果分析，提出现阶段中国如何引入外资的政策建议。 在实证检验部分，我们得出日本对中国的投资类型兼具出口导向型和市场导向型的结论。面对日本量化宽松货币政策和人民币贬值以及中国劳动力成本上升的现状，中国需要从引入外资政策调整、产业结构优化和稳定国内经济环境等方面加以变化，来吸引外资流入，带动经济发展。 关键词：汇率 对外直接投资 出口导向型 市场导向型 ABSTRACT Foreign direct investment refers to international capital flows in the manners of multinational operating.The motives include: acquiring raw materials, seeking knowledge, reducing costs, learning technology and avoiding trade barriers. Foreign direct investment have played a positive role in promoting economy growth and increasing international trade, optimizing industry structure and improving employment.As the worlds second largest economy, Japan, whose foreign direct investment began in in the mid-1980s of the 20th century, foreign direct investment develop rapidly and Japan become the great one of the powers.The exchange rate is one country抯 currency Conversion Ratio to another countrys currency, the change of exchange rate have a significant impact on a countrys import and export volume, price levels and capital flows.It not only regulates a countrys balance of payments, but also the important means of macro-control . After the Plaza Agreement in 1985, a significant appreciation of the yen, then the bubble crisis of the 1990s, the Asian financial crisis and the global financial crisis have made the exchange rate of yen fluctuate frequently. The relationship between the fluctuations of the exchange rate and OFDI has been the focus point of domestic and fo