央票发行动因及影响研究.docVIP

内容摘要 中国人民银行在2002年9月24日首次发行了的中央银行票据，其最初的发行目的是为了抵消外汇占款对货币供应量的不良影响。从2003年开始，我国开始大量使用中央银行票据，现在已成为中央银行引导市场利率、调节货币供应量的一项重要工具。那么中央银行票据成为公开市场业务操作工具后是否会对其他操作工具产生影响，它的优点与局限性，其发行的主要原因是什么。带着上面的这些问题，作者写了这篇文章，有利于对中央银行票据有个比较深入的了解和研究。 文章首先对我国中央银行票据的产生背景以及调控原理进行了论述，同时对中央银行作为公开市场操作工具的优势和局限性进行了分析；其次，本文分析了中央银行票据与货币供应量、基准利率等的关系；基于中国人民银行公布的2008年——2013年的统计数据，建立了VAR模型，实证分析了中央银行票据对货币供应量以及利率存在一定的影响；在文章最后，本文对中央银行票据未来的发展提出了若干有效建议。 关键词：中央银行票据 货币供应量 VAR模型 Abstract Central bank security came out at 24th ，November，2002 in china. On the one hand, it is called central bank bill to be the new operating instrument of open market operationsits initial purpose is to offset the impact of foreign exchange on the money supply. Since 2003, it has been widely used during the market operations. On the other hand, it is used as an important tool to guide market interest rates. Are the central bank securities only used in china, or used in many other countries? Do central bank securities have own limitations? With these questions, I wrote the paper intended to have more in-depth understanding of the research. First, the article analyses the background of the central bank bill, with advantages and limitations of the tools of open market operations. The article believes the central bank notes have some limitations, but its advantages are obviously. It is still able to control the money supply, can ensure the realization of the policy objectives to stable and rapid economic growth. Second, it analyzes the relationship between central bank bills and the money supply, the benchmark rate. Again，based on the people’s bank of china announced in 2008 to 2013 statistics, established VAR model, the empirical proof of the central bank bills there is a certain influence on money supply and interest rates. Finally，put forward policy recommendation to improve the effectiveness of central bank bills for future development. Key words： central bank bill money supply var model  一、中央银行票据发行