i g o s- p carbon cycle observation theme-- ocean observations（i g o s - p碳循环观察主题——海洋观测）.doc

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i g o s- p carbon cycle observation theme-- ocean observations（i g o s - p碳循环观察主题——海洋观测）.doc

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IGOS-P Carbon Cycle Observation Theme - Ocean Observations DRAFT – October 31, 2000 Written/Compiled by Scott Doney (NCAR) and Maria Hood (UNESCOIOC) with contributions from A. Alexiou, J. Bishop, H. Ducklow, R. Fine, N. Gruber, E. Lindstrom, K.K. Liu, F. Mackenzie, C. McClain, T. Platt, S. Smith, C. Summerhayes, D. Wallace, and R. Wanninkhof Section 1 - Rationale for an Ocean Carbon Observing System Over the last two centuries, human activities such as fossil fuel emissions, biomass burning, and land use change have profoundly impacted the global carbon cycle, and present atmospheric CO2 levels are higher than experienced on the planet for at least the last 400,000 if not the last several million years. There is increasing societal and political interest in improving future forecasts of atmospheric CO2 levels and possible direct and indirect feedbacks of the increasing concentration on climate, and terrestrial and ocean ecosystems. The ocean is the largest mobile reservoir of carbon on decadal to millennial timescales, and the longterm sequestration of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean acts to effectively decrease the potential atmospheric radiative and climate impacts. Observational and modeling estimates suggest that the ocean is taking up about 3040% of the fossil fuel CO2 emissions, but the future behavior of the oceanic sink is problematic, depending upon possible changes in ocean circulation and marine biogeochemistry. Three key scientific questions relevant to the oceans role in the global carbon cycle arise from current policyrelated issues: 1. How large are presentday oceanic carbon sources and sinks, where do they operate, and what processes are responsible? 2. How will oceanic carbon sources and sinks behave in the future under higher CO2 and a possibly altered climate and ocean circulation? 3. How and where will we monitor and assess the effectiveness of emissions controls and sequestration activities on global atmospheric CO2 levels (inc