ppt课件-introductiontoforecasting.pptVIP

Chapter 2 Forecasting Introduction to Forecasting What is forecasting? Primary Function is to Predict the Future Why are we interested? Affects the decisions we make today Examples: who uses forecasting in their jobs? forecast demand for products and services forecast availability of manpower forecast inventory and materiel needs daily Characteristics of Forecasts They are usually wrong! A good forecast is more than a single number mean and standard deviation range (high and low) Aggregate forecasts are usually more accurate Accuracy erodes as we go further into the future. Forecasts should not be used to the exclusion of known information What Makes a Good Forecast It should be timely It should be as accurate as possible It should be reliable It should be in meaningful units It should be presented in writing The method should be easy to use and understand in most cases. Ease of updating as new data becomes available. Forecasting Methods Subjective Forecasting Methods Measures individual or group opinion Objective Forecasting Methods Forecasts made based on past history and a model. Time Series Models: use only past history. Easy to incorporate into computer models. Regression: Causal Model to predict Subjective Forecasting Methods Sales Force Composites Aggregation of sales personnel estimates Customer Surveys To understand future trends, change in customer view Jury of Executive Opinion Maybe there is a new product etc. The Delphi Method Individual opinions are compiled and reconsidered. Repeat until and overall group consensus is (hopefully) reached. Objective Forecasting Methods Two primary methods: causal models and time series methods Causal Models Let Y be the quantity to be forecasted and (X1, X2, . . . , Xn) be n variables that have predictive power for Y. A causal model is Y = f (X1, X2, . . . , Xn). “Y depends on X1, X2, . . . , Xn” A typical relationship is a linear one. That is, Y = a0 + a1X1 + . . . + an Xn. Time S