ppt课件-livestockmarketing-iowastateuniversity.pptVIP

Livestock Markets 2007 Billion Per Cap Price Exp Imp lbs1 lbs2 $/cwt %3 %3 Beef 26.4 65.2 92.61 5.4 11.6 Pork 21.9 50.8 46.94 14.3 4.4 Broilers 36.1 85.4 77.53 16.0 0.2 Turkeys 5.9 17.6 81.98 9.3 0.2 Measuring consumption Balance sheet approach Beginning inventories + Production + Imports - Exports - Ending inventory = Disappearance Per Capita consumption = Disappearance / Population A measure of supply rather than demand Livestock Marketing Decisions When to sell Weight, grade, costs What to sell Live, carcass, grid Where to sell Type of market Location When to sell Classic production function Optimal selling weight is where MC=MR The cost of the next pound = the price of the next pound Cost per pound decrease then increase with weight Costs are a function of Genetic potential Cost of diet Opportunity costs of future production Price per pound increases then decreases Weight discounts outside optimal range Fatter carcasses are discounted Adding extra weight When to sell Marginal Revenue Uncertain about price if you wait to sell (price trends) Typically animals increase the portion of fat relative to muscle produced as they get heavier. There is an optimal weight range by packers Discounts if too light or too heavy Optimal degree of “finish” Different for hogs versus cattle Both can be too fat When to sell MC increases at an increasing rate as the animal nears the optimal market time Function of animal efficiency related to genetics Is impacted by feed prices For the same efficiency the MC is higher if feed is 10 cents per pound than when feed is five cents per pound. When to sell Marginal Revenue MR increases then decreases due to premiums and discounts associated with grades Is also a function of seasonal price trends that could be higher or lower When to sell Complicated decision based on Season Current leanness and efficiency Packer buying program Also influenced by Production schedule Cost of replacement animal While are there seasonal price patterns??