Chapt的er_02 实证分析工具.pptVIP

CHAPTER 2 Tools of Positive Analysis The Role of Theory Economic models virtue of simplicity judging a model limitations of models Empirical analysis Causation vs. Correlation Statistical analysis Correlation Control group Treatment group Conditions required for government action X to cause societal effect Y X must precede Y X and Y must be correlated Other explanations for any observed correlation must be eliminated Experimental Studies Biased estimates Counterfactual Experimental (or randomized) study Conducting an Experimental Study Random assignment to control and treatment groups Pitfalls of Experimental Studies Ethical issues Technical problems Response bias Impact of limited duration of experiment Generalization of results to other populations, settings, and related treatments Black box aspect of experiments Observational Studies Observational study – empirical study relying on observed data not obtained from experimental study Sources of observational data Surveys Administrative records Governmental data Econometrics Regression analysis Conducting an Observational Study L = α0 + α1wn + α2X1 + … + αnXn + ε Dependent variable Independent variables Parameters Stochastic error term Regression analysis Regression line Standard error Types of Data Cross-sectional data Time-series data Panel data Pitfalls of Observational Studies Data collected in non-experimental setting Specification issues Quasi-Experimental Studies Quasi-experimental study (= natural experiment) – observational study relying on circumstances outside researcher’s control to mimic random assignment Conducting a Quasi-Experimental Study Difference-in-difference quasi-experiments Instrumental Variables quasi-experiments Regression-Discontinuity Quasi-Experiments Pitfalls of Quasi-Experimental Studies Assignment to control and treatment groups may not be random Not applicable to all research questions Generalization of results to other settings and treatments 2-* McGraw-Hill/Irwin Copyright ? 2008