我国经常项目差额变动决定因素的实证分析..doc

我国经常项目差额变动决定因素的实证分析 An Empirical Analysis of Determinants of the Changes to Current Account Balance in China 李宏 李彦 内容摘要：近些年来，全球经常项目收支的两极化日趋严重。在世界经济增长放缓和金融环境恶化的大背景下，这无疑进一步增加了我国经济发展的外部风险。为了尽可能地减少国际收支调整给我国经济带来的冲击，就必须全面系统地分析出我国经常项目差额变动的决定因素。为此，通过一些系列的实证检验，本文认为，经济发展阶段、人民币汇率、金融深化程度、人口年龄结构、政府财政收支状况、外贸依存度、贸易条件、实际利用外资额和外国净资产额这些因素是我国经常项目差额变动的重要决定因素；而且，其中的经济发展阶段、金融深化程度、人口年龄结构、外贸依存度、贸易条件和外国净资产额这几个因素对我国经常项目差额的短期波动影响也较大。 关键词： 经常项目差额 主成分分析 协整检验 向量误差修正模型 决定因素 Abstract: In the last few years, the global current account balance has polarized more and more seriously. It increases external risks to the economic development of China when there is a slowdown in world economic growth and a deterioration in global financial environment. In order to minimize the impact of adjustment to the balance of payments on Chinas economy, we must do a comprehensive and systematic analysis of determinants of the changes to current account balance in China. Therefore, this paper conducts a series of empirical investigation of the relationship between the determinants and current acount balance. The results show that the major determinants of the changes to China’s current account balance include the stage of economic development, RMB exchange rate, the degree of financial deepening, the age structure of population, the balance of governments fiscal payments, the degree of dependence upon foreign trade, terms of trade, the amount of actual utilization of foreign investment and the amount of net foreign assets. And the stage of economic development, the degree of financial deepening, the age structure of population, the degree of dependence upon foreign trade, terms of trade and the amount of net foreign assets also have a strong influence on the short-term fluctuation in China’s current account balance. Key words: Current Account Balance; Principal Component Analysis; Cointegration Test; Vector Error Correction Model; Determinants 一、引言 近年来，全球经济失衡问题十分严重，其最突出的体现则是全球经常项目收支失衡的日益加剧。一方面，以美国为代表的一部