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buildinga simple forecast spreadsheetin excel（buildinga简单预测spreadsheetin excel）（10页）.doc

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Building a Pro Forma Forecasting Spreadsheet in Excel By Steven C. Isberg, Ph.D January 2002 Introduction As you have learned in this course, a financial statement forecast is usually based on a set of forecast parameters that measure certain values as a percentage of sales and as a percentage of other performance outcomes. In this model, the notion of such parameters will be broadened to include other relationships that are used in forecasting, for example, the fact that inventory is more closely associated with the cost of goods sold as opposed to sales. What will be done in this exercise is twofold. First, we will build a forecast of an income statement and partial balance sheet using these parametric relationships; second, we will convert the forecast data into a net cash flow and discount it to determine value of the entity for which the forecast is being made. In this case, the entity is a company. As you work through this exercise, it will be a good idea to print this document and work through it with Excel open on your computer. This will give you step-by-step instructions in building the spreadsheet. You can start by opening the Excel file named: proformabuilding.xls. Proformabuilding.xls What you will see in this file are several rows and columns of information. The first column provides the titles of balance sheet and income statement accounts. The labels included in parentheses ( ), indicate what parameter is used to forecast values for that account in the future. For example, when you look at row 17, accounts receivable, you can see that the accounts receivable turnover will be used as a parameter to forecast future account receivable balances. Column B provides the actual data for the year 2001, and column C provides the values of the parameters to be used in the forecasts. Column D repeats the information for 2001. Parameters Forecast parameters are usually determined by a combination of financial analysis and the judgem