Uncertainmodelsandmodellinguncertainty.ppt

Uncertain models and modelling uncertainty Marian Scott Dept of Statistics, University of Glasgow EMS workshop, Nottingham, April 2004 Outline of presentation Model building and testing- is the environment special? Statistical models vs physical/process based models What is sensitivity/uncertainty analysis? Quantifying and apportioning variation in model and data. General comments- relevance and implementation. All models are wrong but some are useful(and some are more useful than others) (All data are useful, but some are more varied than others.) Questions we ask about models Is the model valid? Are the assumptions reasonable? Does the model make sense based on best scientific knowledge Is the model credible? Do the model predictions match the observed data? How uncertain are the results? Statistical models Always includes an ? term to describe random variation Empirical Descriptive and predictive Model building goal: simplest model which is adequate used for inference Physical/process based models Uses best scientific knowledge May not explicitly include ?, or any random variation Descriptive and predictive Goal may not be simplest model Not used for inference Models Mathematical (deterministic/process based) models tend to be complex to ignore important sources of uncertainty Statistical models tend to be empirical To ignore much of the biological/physical/chemical knowledge Stages in modelling Design and conceptualisation: Visualisation of structure Identification of processes (variable selection) Choice of parameterisation Fitting and assessment parameter estimation (calibration) Goodness of fit Model evaluation tools Graphical procedures % variation explained in response Statistical model comparisons (F-tests, ANOVA, GLRT) well designed for statistical models, but what of the physical, process-driven models? Comparability to measurements The story of randomness and uncertainty Randomness as the source of variability A source of variation, different