ppt课件-developinga research agendaforthe caribbean food systemto（developinga研究agendaforthe加勒比食品系统）.pptVIP

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ppt课件-developinga research agendaforthe caribbean food systemto（developinga研究agendaforthe加勒比食品系统）.ppt

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Developing a Research Agenda for the Caribbean Food System to respond to Global Climate Changes 19-20 September, 2002 University of the West Indies, St. Augustine The Potential for the Application of Climate Models to the Caribbean SituationPrepared byAdrian R. TrotmanAgrometeorologist, Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology GCM based on the principles of fluid dynamics and take into account the interactions between the different components of the climate system Most predictions have been done with Atmospheric and Ocean Global Climate Models (AOGCMS) that provide projections on future climate on a global or planetary scale and the sub-continental scale. GCM grids too large for small islands. Climates of islands are being predicted to change in the same way as the surrounding oceans. The horizontal resolution of AOGCMs is, typically, in the range 100 to 500 km. GCM have been less consistent in terms of seasonal and shorter-term projections. Lack of geographical detail Possible solution of downscaling: Possible solution of downscaling: Small grids Problems with Downscaling methods The Climate Studies Group, University of the West Indies, Mona (CSGM) Conclusion * * A bit about GCMs Problems associated with use of climate models for impact and vulnerability studies with small island states The GCM will however be useful in vulnerability and impact studies on the marine environment (e.g. studies on coral reefs and associated biodiversity) since the global models are better at sea surface temperature estimation. GCMs have been used to represent the more regional situation by ‘forcing’ these models to run at higher resolutions (of about 100 km grid). For the islands of the Caribbean, these grids are too large for detailed information. Empirical/Statistical and dynamical/statistical models relate historical observations of local climate parameters to parameters on a larger scale. The relationship is then applied to the large scale parameters fro