ppt课件-policy analysis frameworksand models（政策分析frameworksand模型）.pptVIP

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2017-01-25 发布于四川
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ppt课件-policy analysis frameworksand models（政策分析frameworksand模型）.ppt

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Policy Analysis: Frameworks and Models Stokey and Zeckhauser Ch1-3 Jenkins-Smith Ch1-3 Weimer and Vining Ch1-2 Where we left off with Weimer Vining… Executive Summary Introduction Statement of the Problem Current State Statement of the Policy Goals New Ways of Organizing Comparing the Alternatives with the Policy Goals Summary Table Evaluation and Recommendation Stokey and Zeckhauser: Framework for Analysis What do you do when a complicated policy issue lands on your desk? Establish the context Lay out the alternatives Predicting the consequences of each alternative – including likelihood Valuing the outcomes Making a choice “These are craftsman’s tools you must learn to wield them with skill.” Models Model: a simplified representation of some aspect of the real world Types: Diagrammatic: flow charts, decision trees; they identify distinct stages in a process Conceptual models: taking complex ideas and concepts and simplifying them Long division: large numbers are sometimes confusing Tragedy of the Commons: (Garrett Harding) describes the incentives associated with the common grazing ground of a medieval English village. Where individuals ignore the cost their use has on others with the inevitable result of overgrazing that is costly to all. More on Types Simple: formal mathematical models that describe explicitly the quantitative changes in a particular variable in response to stimuli. Example: $ in a savings account/interest Descriptive: describing the way the world operates Prescriptive: provide rules for making an optimal choice– prescribing courses of action (normative/optimizing models) First, construct a descriptive model that encompasses all choices open to the decision maker and predicts the outcome of each A set of procedures for choosing among alternative actions given the decision maker’s preferences among the outcomes. A couple more… Deterministic: the outcome is assumed to be certain. Natural Laws: E=mc2 Probabilistic: Where the outcome of a parti