Effect of Revenues on Guarantee Scenario 1收入对担保方案1的影响.pptxVIP

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Effect of Revenues on Guarantee Scenario 1收入对担保方案1的影响.pptx

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California’s Fiscal Outlook Legislative Analyst’s Office California Association of School Business Officials Annual Conference April 4, 2013 Budget Overview Total State Expenditures State General Fund Condition Proposition 98 Funding Proposition 98 Spending Governor’s Multiyear Paydown Plan Economic Update Administrations January 2013 National Economic Forecast Administrations January 2013 State Economic Forecast Some Industry Sectors Continue to Struggle Unemployment Rate Varies Widely Among Counties Key Housing Markets Continue to Improve Revenue Update Lower Estimates of Redevelopment-Related Transfers Administration’s Multiyear “Big Three” Revenue Forecast State Big Three Revenue Update Effect of Revenues on Guarantee: Scenario 1 Revenues Up $1.5 Billion Across 3 Years Up $500 million in 2011-12. Up $4.2 billion in 2012-13. Down $3.2 billion in 2013-14. Guarantee $57.4 billion, up $3.8 billion, in 2012-13. $54.4 billion, down $1.8 billion, in 2013-14. 17 Effect of Revenues on Guarantee: Scenario 2 Revenues Up $4 Billion Across 3 Years Up $500 million in 2011-12. Up $3 billion in 2012-13. Up $500 million in 2013-14. Guarantee $56.2 billion, up $2.7 billion, in 2012-13. $56.5 billion, up $300 million, in 2013-14. 18 Effect of Revenues on Guarantee: Scenario 3 Revenues Up $7.5 Billion Across 3 Years Up $600 million in 2011-12. Up $4.4 billion in 2012-13. Up $2.5 billion in 2013-14. Guarantee $57.6 billion, up $4.0 billion, in 2012-13. $57.7 billion, up $1.5 billion, in 2013-14. 19 Federal Update Sequestration Now in Effect 5 Percent Cut to Most Federal Education Programs Effective Beginning 2013-14 Title I and IDEA Affected 21