LogLikelihood Explanation【DOC精选】.doc

WLF 625 - Lecture 2Binomial Theory Hopefully, in a class interested in parameters such as survival probability (live or die) and detection probability (captured or not captured) you can appreciate the relevance of binomial theory. Like a coin toss (head or tail), the estimators used in the analysis of vertebrate population dynamics are rooted in binomial theory. Today, we will cover the principles of binomial theory leading to likelihood theory and maximum likelihood estimation. Next week, we will examine the theory of a slightly more complex concept -- multinomial theory. To understand binomial probability you must first understand binomial coefficients. We can use binomial coefficients to calculate the number of ways (combinations) a sample size of n can be taken from a population of N individuals: ? For example, the number of ways to select sample sizes of 2 individuals (without replacement) from a population of 5 individuals equals: This coefficient also appears in the estimator used in binomial probability. You remember, you needed to calculate the probability of 5 heads in 20 tosses of a fair coin. An individual flip of the coin is called a Bernoulli trial and if the coin is fair the probability of a head for an individual toss is 0.5. If the probability of a head is p, then the probability of a tail equals 1-p, sometimes denoted as q. So, given a fair coin, and therefore the probability of a head in a Bernoulli trial equal to 0.5, the probability of y heads in 20 flips of the coin is equal to: The left side of the equation is read as the probability of observing 5 heads given that we tossed the fair coin 20 times and the probability of a head in any single toss is 0.5. This probability equals: Do you think the probability of 9 heads in 20 tosses would be higher or lower than 0.015? What about 19 heads in 20 tosses? Heres a graph of probabilities for 0-20 heads. Notice: In the above estimator for binomial probability we are assuming that we know the