需求预测.ppt

* * * * This slide lists some of the uses and limitations of moving average forecasting:- The moving average is a very simple forecasting technique which lends itself to manual calculation. An advantage of moving averages is that they are a good way to filter out random variation from a demand series. The longer periods the more smoothing occurs. This means that a monthly forecast would have more smoothing than a weekly forecast which would be smoother than a daily forecast. A limitation for moving average forecasts is that they do not detect or react to trends very well. By the very nature of calculation a moving average will lag any trends and hence this method of forecasting is not good for products subject to seasonal or dynamic changes in demand. * Exponential smoothing is a form of moving average forecasting which uses weighting factors to modify the emphasis placed on more recent time periods. Exponential smoothing uses a weighting factor called alpha which is expressed as a decimal quantity. This factor is used to weight the most recent past period, with the reciprocal being used to weight the more distant past period. It is not necessary to explain the exponential smoothing formula in this course, but the key concepts of exponential smoothing should be covered. Exponential smoothing works well with items that are subject to stable demand, I.e no seasonality or trend components. Exponential smoothing is good for short range forecasts, and it can detect trends, but like any moving average program it lags the trend. Explain that an extension of this method is called double exponential smoothing and this requires the use of two weighting factors, alpha and beta, and the purpose of this technique is to respond * * * * * * * * * * * * * One of the important aspects of forecasting is how the data is collected and recorded. The data should be collected in the same terms as the forecast is required. For example if the forecast is required to be expressed i