3_chen_wcsmo_anel3_chen_wcsmo_panel3_chen_wcsmo_panel3_chen_wcsmo_panel.pptVIP

Design Optimization under Uncertainty: Status Promises Design Scenario Uncertainty Representation Quantification Probabilistic (distribution function, random field) Non-probabilistic Possibility-based (fuzzy set) Interval analysis Evidence theory Aleatory (stochastic, irreducible) vs. Epistemic (reducible) reliability interval, Bayesian reliability Uncertainty Propagation Estimation Local expansion based methods Taylor series method Simulation based method Monte Carlo Simulation Importance sampling, stratified sampling, adaptive sampling,… MPP (Most probable point based methods) FORM (fi