主观因素影响下河川基流量计算的不确定性分析.docVIP

主观因素影响下河川基流量计算的不确定性分析 　　摘要：基于增江中下游麒麟咀水文站1958年-1988年以及2006年-2014年的逐日径流资料，根据各种基流分割方法的优缺点，以及增江中下游地区水文地质条件和径流变化特征，首次采用加里宁试算法计算了该地区的基流量，并深入研究了该方法应用过程中主观因素对基流计算结果产生的影响。结果表明，参数的主观差异化选取对加里宁试算法分割确定的河川基流量影响显著。在假定合理范围内确定的退水系数β服从均匀分布时，对应的比例系数B的分布并不会与之一致，基流量是在两个参数的基础上计算的；不考虑主观因素影响时，增江中下游的多年平均基流量为7.8亿m3，考虑主观因素影响时，置信水平95%的置信区间为6.68～8.72亿m3，直接计算的结果位于95%的置信区间内，其对应的保证率为41%。因此，考虑基流量计算的主观不确定性不仅能够用于校验计算结果，同时可以提出该计算结果下的保证率，这将为地下水资源管理决策的制定提供重要的依据。 　　关键词：基流计算；加里宁试算法；主观因素；增江中下游；不确定性 　　中图分类号：TV211 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1672-1683（2016）04-0008-06 　　Abstract：Using the 1958-1988 and 2006-2014 years of daily runoff data of Qilinzui Hydrological Station on the downstream of Zengjiang River，according to the advantages and disadvantages of various methods of baseflow separation，and Zengjiang′s hydrogeological conditions and runoff variation characteristics，first Kalinin trial method was used to calculate the baseflow of this region，and the effects of subjective factors on the baseflow calculation result in the application of this method was studied in depth.The results showed that the parameter selection was very important for the Kalinin trial method on the baseflow segmentation.Assuming that the selection of recession coefficient was in line with uniform distribution，the corresponding coefficient scale factor B obtained by the recession coefficient would not be uniformly distributed.Baseflow was calculated based on the two parameters.Without considering the influence of subjective factors，the multi-year baseflow of Zengjiang River had an average of 7.8 billion cubic meters for many years.Under the influence of subjective factors，the 95% confidence interval was 6.68～8.72 billion cubic.The direct calculation result was within this confidence interval，and the corresponding assurance rate was 41%.Therefore，considering the subjective uncertainty in baseflow calculation could not only be used to check the calculation results，but also put forward the reliability of the calculation results at the same time