Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil after Inflation通货膨胀后的巴西货币汇率政策.pptVIP

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Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil after Inflation通货膨胀后的巴西货币汇率政策.ppt

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Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil after Inflation通货膨胀后的巴西货币汇率政策

Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy in Brazil after Inflation Targeting Márcio Holland Main Question Why are short-term real interest rates so high in Brazil? How high?Selected Countries: Real Interest Rate (Average 1996-2002) Figure 2. Real Interest Rate: Selected Countries (Annual Percentage 1996-2002) Why are Interest Rates so high in Brazil? Plausible answers Capital Account Inconvertibility and Jurisdiction Monetary Policy and the Fear of Floating Does Brazil Suffer from the Fear of Floating? The Central Bank Reactions Further Explanations Original Sin Dollarization of the Banking System Why are Interest Rates so high in Brazil? Sudden Stop of the Capital Inflows and Shocks Garcia (2004): a negative shock in international liquidity constrains local investment and leads the Central Bank to raise interest rate to alleviate the exchange rate depreciation. Fiscal Problems Favero and Giavazzi (2002): The spread (540 b.p.) between the 24-month interest rate and monetary policy rate is almost entirely explained by a term premium of 511 b.p; such term premia are strongly correlated with Brady bonds spreads, which are not affected by devaluation expectations. Then, macroeconomic fundamentals and debt dynamics must be the main determinants of the term premium. Brazil may have to raise its primary surplus further, at least for some time. How to reduce the real interest rate? Garcia (2004): The high real interest rates are not a result of “irrational” monetary policy; The shortage of capital flows is “the cause”, and external vulnerability must be reduced. Global Option: “the creation of an international lender of last resort” (Bacha(2002) Regional Option: FTAA National Option: deepen and further long-term domestic financial markets Instrument independence to the Brazilian Central Bank Favero Giavazzi (2002) Brazil may have to raise its primary surplus further, at least for some time. Required Primary Surplus: Brazil (about 7,5% per year) Italy Case Inconverti