NAFTA Good or Bad for Mexico Colby College北美自由贸易协定好的或坏的墨西哥寇比学院.pptVIP

NAFTA: An Introduction Eliminates restrictions on the flow of goods, services and investments between Mexico, Canada, and the United States Went into effect January 1994 All tariffs will be phased out by 2008 Classical Liberalism’s Perspective The country should benefit from lowering trade barriers Better prices to consumers Better goods (increased quality) Markets for exporters Economic Growth Classical Liberalism’s Perspective However, freer trade has not come without serious social costs Asymmetric benefits Rural Mexicans have lost jobs Worker rights issues Environmental Degradation - Social Unrest (Zapatista protests) Neoliberal Institutionalist Perspective Economic integration has allowed Mexico to reap absolute gains Increased international trading power and influence US Assistance Monetary stabilization GDP growth A Macroeconomic Analysis NAFTA has been very politically controversial Only 29% of Mexicans think the treaty is helping them How should we evaluate the success of a trade agreement? A Macroeconomic Analysis A Macroeconomic Analysis A Macroeconomic Analysis Questions Is NAFTA good or bad for Mexico? Do the aggregate economic gains merit the social costs? What is the future of NAFTA in Mexico? How will Mexico change as a result of the agreement? * Source: The Economist 23% 32% Public Debt/GDP 32% 22% Imports as % of GDP 216 91 Total Merchandise Imports (US$billions) 32% 17% Exports as % of GDP 215 71 Total Merchandise Exports (US$ billions) 9,680 7,351 Per Capita GDP in $PPPs 6,450 4,617 Per Capita GDP ($US) 1,017 671 GDP, PPP** Basis ($US billions) 677 422 Nominal GDP ($US billions) 105 91 Population (millions) 2004*? 1994? Key Economic Indicators for Mexico Source: Economist Intelligence Unit. (Congressional Research Service) U.S.-Mexican Foreign Direct Investment Positions, 1994-2003 6,680 2003 7,483 2002 6,645 2001 7,462 2000 1,999 1999 2,055 1998 3,100 1997 1,641 1996 1,850 1995 2,069 19