On the Fluctuations of Seismicity and Uncertainties in论地震活动性和不确定性的波动.pptVIP

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2017-03-08 发布于上海
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On the Fluctuations of Seismicity and Uncertainties in论地震活动性和不确定性的波动.ppt

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On the Fluctuations of Seismicity and Uncertainties in论地震活动性和不确定性的波动

Step 1 Step 2 * Outlook Data assimilation of more complex point processes and operational implementation (non-linear, non-Gaussian DA) Including parameter estimation Estimating and testing (forecasting) corner magnitude, based on geophysics, EVT including uncertainties (Bayesian?) Spatio-temporal dependencies of seismicity? Estimating extreme ground motions shaking Interest in better spatio-temporal characterization of seismicity (spatial, fractal clustering) Improved likelihood estimation of parameters in clustering models (scaling laws in seismicity, critical phenomena and earthquakes) * * * * * * * . * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Statistics of Seismicity and Uncertainties in Earthquake CatalogsForecasting Based on Data Assimilation Maximilian J. Werner Swiss Seismological Service ETHZ Didier Sornette (ETHZ), David Jackson, Kayo Ide (UCLA) Stefan Wiemer (ETHZ) stochastic and clustered earthquakes uncertain representations of earthquakes in catalogs scientific hypotheses, models, forecasts Statistical Seismology Magnitude Fluctuations Relocated Hauksson Catalog, 1984-2002 Gutenberg-Richter Law b=1 Relocated Hauksson Catalog, 1984-2002 6.4 Northridge 1994 7.1 Hector Mine 1999 7.3 Landers 1992 6.6 Superstition Hills 1987 Rate Fluctuations Omori-Utsu Law Productivity Law Days since mainshock Rate Triggered Events Magnitude Spatial Fluctuations Relocated Hauksson Catalog, 1984-2002 6.4 Northridge 1994 7.1 Hector Mine 1999 7.3 Landers 1992 5.4 Oceanside 1986 Seismicity Models simple complex Time-independent random (Poisson process) Time-dependent, no clustering (renewal process) Time-dependent, simple clustering (Poisson cluster models) Time-dependent, linear cascades of clusters (epidemic-type earthquake sequences) non-linear cascades of clusters Current “gold standard” null hypothesis A Strong Null Hypothesis Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model: Gutenberg-Richter Law Omori-Utsu Law Productivity Law Time-independent s