Potential VorticityPV Thinking in Operations The Utility潜在涡度光伏思维在操作中的实用程序.pptVIP

Potential VorticityPV Thinking in Operations The Utility潜在涡度光伏思维在操作中的实用程序.ppt

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Potential VorticityPV Thinking in Operations The Utility潜在涡度光伏思维在操作中的实用程序

Potential Vorticity (PV) Thinking in Operations: The Utility of Nonconservation Michael J. Brennan*, Gary M. Lackmann, and Kelly M. Mahoney Department of Marine, Earth, and Atmospheric Sciences, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina Introduction PV can potentially be used by operational forecasters as a tool in the forecast process PV hasn’t gained widespread acceptance in the operational forecasting community Goals of the paper Provide examples of situations where PV diagnosis adds value to traditional forecast methods Provide specific suggestions for diagnostic PV tools for use in forecasting Overview of PV Concepts PV principles PV is proportional to the product of absolute vorticity and static stability PV = (1/ρ)η ? ▼θ In the Northern Hemisphere positive PV anomalies are associated with positive relative vorticity and high values of static stability PV is conserved in frictionless, adiabatic flow PV is not conserved in diabatic processes Overview of PV Concepts PV is invertible Piecewise inversions can be used to quantify effects of heating and friction influenced developments of specific anomalies by solving a boundary value problem Davis, C.A., and K.A. Emanuel, 1991: Potential vorticity diagnostics of cyclogenesis. Mon. Wea. Rev., 119, 1929-1953 Not practical for operational forecasters Cyclogenesis can occur when a cyclonic circulation associated with an upper-level +PV anomaly extends to the surface creating a surface warm anomaly through advection Diabatic PV anomalies can play a large role in moisture transport and precipitation distribution Case Study Examples Moisture transport in ETC East coast cyclone of January 24-25, 2000 was poorly forecast by NWP models A piecewise Ertel PV inversion was used to show that a lower-tropospheric PV maximum, generated by LH in an “incipient precipitation” (IP) area, was critical in moisture transport for the heavy precipitation area Models did not forecast the IP and therefore were unabl

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