Reducing Estimation Uncertainty with Continuous Assessment减少估计不确定度的持续评估.pptVIP

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Reducing Estimation Uncertainty with Continuous Assessment减少估计不确定度的持续评估.ppt

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Reducing Estimation Uncertainty with Continuous Assessment减少估计不确定度的持续评估

? USC-CSSE University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering University of Southern California Center for Systems and Software Engineering ? USC-CSSE Reducing Estimation Uncertainty with Continuous Assessment:Tracking the “Cone of Uncertainty” Pongtip Aroonvatanaporn, Chatchai Sinthop, Barry Boehm {aroonvat, sinthop, boehm} @usc.edu November 2, 2010 Outline Introduction and Motivation Framework Model Experiment Results Conclusion and future work 11/02/2010 * ? USC-CSSE The Cone of Uncertainty 11/02/2010 * ? USC-CSSE Inexperienced teams Experienced teams Also applies to project estimation accuracy Definition Inexperience Inexperienced in general Experienced, but in a new domain Anything that is new with little knowledge or experience 11/02/2010 ? USC-CSSE * The Problem Experienced teams can produce better estimates Use “yesterday’s weather” Past projects of comparable size Past data of team’s productivity Knowledge of accumulated problems and solutions Inexperienced teams do not have this luxury No tools or data that monitors project’s progression within the cone of uncertainty 11/02/2010 * ? USC-CSSE The Problem Imprecise project scoping Overestimate vs. underestimate Manual assessments are tedious Complex and discouraging Project estimation not revisited Insufficient data to perform predictions Project’s uncertainties not adjusted Limitations in software cost estimation Models cannot fully compensate for lack of knowledge and understanding 11/02/2010 * ? USC-CSSE The Goal Develop a framework to address mentioned issues Help unprecedented projects track project progression Reduce the uncertainties in estimation Achieve eventual convergence of estimate and actual Must be quick and easy to use 11/02/2010 * ? USC-CSSE Benefits Improve project planning and management Resources and goals Improved product quality control Actual project progress tracking Better understanding of project status Actual progress reports 11/02/2010 * ? USC-CSSE Ou