WHICH WORLD Scenarios for the 21st Century第二十一世纪的世界情景.pptVIP

WHICH WORLD?Scenarios for the 21st Century Inventing a Transformed World Allen Hammond Rapid Global Change a globalizing economy transforming technologies Market world free markets private enterprise unprecedented technological innovation global integration What could undercut Market World ? Demographic Equity Environmental Social stresses Security Projected world population growth Total fertility Urbanization Projected economic growth Income gaps Environmental trends … the impact of industrialization The materials cycle Global industrial growth Regional industrial growth2050 pollution potential Atmospheric CO2 concentrations Threatened frontier forests of South America Threatened frontier forests of Asia Threatened frontier forests of Africa Threatened coral reefs The biosphere is under stress Degradation Growing resource scarcity Rural impoverishment undercutting livelihoods undermining social stability Social stresses Persistent poverty, malnutrition A tide of HIV orphans The global teenager New threats to security and stability Terrorism and global crime Unemployment urban instability Illegal migration Emerging new diseases Global climate change Fortress world Conflict between rich and poor Widespread environmental degradation Rising social instability Potential for violence and chaos Transformed world Reasons for hope Rising literacy Innovation and technological change New Actors ... Rise of civil society …Greening of global corporations New development strategies With new actors and new technologies, could we not dramatically improve: Industrial efficiency … new ways to meet societal needs, such as e-commerce? Environmental productivity … transform management of natural resources, protect special places? Human development … expand access, accelerate education, widen social perspectives, and increase opportunity? What are t