Презентация PowerPoint Carnegie Endowment for 演示的PowerPoint 卡内基.pptVIP

Central Asian Oil Gas Development:Alternative Infrastructure Solutions Vladimir MilovCarnegie Endowment for International PeaceWashington D.C., October 23rd, 2007 Why the search for oil gas transit alternatives is vital for Central Asian nations? Kazakhstan’s oil production surging… …but how this new oil will be evacuated? Potential alternative routes of evacuation of new Turkmen gas Unresolved Caspian dispute can effectively block the construction of any Trans-Caspian pipelines “Caspian” pipeline Turkmen gas: more and more expensive for Russia Other alternative options for Turkmen gas supplies Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline: the most realistic to-date alternative for Turkmen gas Big questions surrounding the development of Turkmen gas production Conclusions * Dependence on the Russian transit monopoly Kazakhstan’s challenge: how to evacuate additional oil if the oil production grows from 1.5 mbd to 3 mbd by 2015? Turkmenistan’s challenge: how to diversify gas exports, ensure direct access to consumers other than Russia, and ensure fair level of gas export prices? * Projection of the Kazakhstan government Atasu-Alashankou oil pipeline to China: first stage completed, expansion expected Shipments of oil via Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline remain an option At the same time: No real progress with CPC expansion – transit through Russia remains a problematic option Question’s rise with regard to the consequences of the recent Kazakh government attacks on foreign investors (the Kashagan consortium) Trans-Caspian gas pipeline Trans-Afghani gas pipeline “Caspian” gas pipeline via Kazakhstan and Russia Various options of gas supply to/via Iran Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline Bargaining among Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan on Kyapaz/Serdar, Azeri/Khazar, Chirag/Osman fields continues No progress achieved at the summit of the heads of Caspian littoral states on October 16th, 2007, in Tehran Very hard to imagine a common position between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan can be re