levelsofmeaningandlevelsofanalysisexploringmicro-.docVIP

Levels of Meaning and Levels of Analysis: Exploring Micro-Macro, Local-Global Interface Problems with the International Futures Simulation (IFs), using Hawaii as an Exemplar Richard W. Chadwick, Department of Political Science, University of Hawaii chadwick@ Abstract A few years ago, Barry Hughes and I embarked on a project to understand what was needed for his global model, the International Futures simulation (IFs), to be more useful for exploring local development issues from a policy planning perspective. The central methodological question was how to relate global change to local decision-making concerns and decision-making. After setting IFs’ development in the context of globalization and futures studies, results to date are presented for an IFs application to Hawaii as a exemplar for futures research with global models. This essay aims first to clear away some intellectual underbrush, then focus on only two or three of the hundreds of trends IFs generates for Hawaii and the rest of the world, in particular demographic projections to 2025 and some economic data. I then examine those trends for a few of their possible public policy implications, and lightly touch on the analytic network process (ANP) decision analysis software used to organize information for policy making purposes. Introduction The global-local interface has been the subject of considerable discussion since the decolonization period following World War II and through the modern era of globalization. Many cultural facets of global-local tensions are of great current interest, such as impacts on cultural worldviews (Mignolo, 2000), local marketing and global management (Johansson, 2002), impacts on theology (Schreiter, 1997), and media and pop culture (Thussu, 1998). Similarly, military and security issues have drawn considerable attention, as has the environmental dimension (global warming, resource scarcities, pollution and so on). Much less media and scholarly attentio