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An informational distance for estimating the faithfulness of a possibility distribution, viewed as a family of probability distributions, with respect to data.pdf

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An informational distance for estimating the faithfulness of a possibility distribution, viewed as a family of probability distributions, with respect to data.pdf

International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 54 (2013) 919–933 Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect International Journal of Approximate Reasoning journal homepage: /locate/ijar An informational distance for estimating the faithfulness of a possibility distribution, viewed as a family of probability distributions, with respect to data Mathieu Serrurier ?, Henri Prade UPS, IRIT, 118 Route de Narbonne, Toulouse, France ARTICLE INFO Article history: Available online 26 February 2013 Keywords: Possibility theory Probability–possibility transformation Informational distance ABSTRACT An acknowledged interpretation of possibility distributions in quantitative possibility theory is in terms of families of probabilities that are upper and lower bounded by the associated possibility and necessity measures. This paper proposes an informational distance function for possibility distributions that agrees with the above-mentioned view of possibility theory in the continuous and in the discrete cases. Especially, we show that, given a set of data following a probability distribution, the optimal possibility distribution with respect to our informational distance is the distribution obtained as the result of the probability–possibility transformation that agrees with the maximal speci?city principle. It is also shown that when the optimal distribution is not available due to representation bias, maximizing this possibilistic informational distance provides more faithful results than approximating the probability distribution and then applying the probability–possibility transformation. We show that maximizing the possibilistic informational distance is equivalent to minimizing the squared distance to the unknown optimal possibility distribution. Two advantages of the proposed informational distance function is that (i) it does not require the knowledge of the shape of the probability distribution that underlies the data, and (ii) it amounts to sum up the elementary