考虑决策者风险偏好的新产品开发方案选择方法.PDFVIP

第33 卷第5期 2012 年 5 月 东北大学学报( 自然科学版) Journal of Nort heastern U niversity( Natural Science) Vol 33, No. 5 M ay 2 0 1 2 姜艳萍, 潘 恩 ( , 110819) :, , :; : F 406. 3; C 934 , ; , ; :A , , ;, , , : 1005- 3026( 2012) 05- 0748- 05 On the Method for Selecting New Product Development Programs Regarding Risk Attitude of Decision Makers JI AN G Yan-pi ng , PA N En ( School of Business Administration, Nor theastern U niversit y, Shenyang 110819, China. Corresponding author: JIA NG Y an- ping , E- mail: ypjiang @ mail. neu. edu. cn) Abstract: In select ing new product development programs, not only t he risk att it ude of decision makers has signif icant ef fect on decision outcomes, but also the success of new product development more oft en t han not depends on it s performance compared to t hat of compet it ive product s. T aking int o account t he risk at tit ude of decision makers and t he evaluation informat ion of compet itive products, t his paper proposes a met hod for select ing new product development prog rams based on the prospect theory. In t his met hod, f irst ly, the prospect ref erence point s of every at tribut e are given, and t he risk at titude of decision makers is introduced t o determine t he prospect value f unct ion of every att ribute in the new product development prog rams that possess interval inf orm at ion. T hen, t he prospect value of every program can be acquired through prospect v alue funct ion and decision weight funct ion so as t o select t he opt imal program. Finally, an example is used to verify the validity and feasibility of this met hod. Key words: new product development ; prospect t heory; risk preference; programs select ion [ 1] , , , [ 2] ,, [ 2] [ 3] [ 1, 4] [ 5- 6] [ 7] , ;, , : 2011- 11- 02 : : ( 1968- ) , , ( ; ( 20110042110011) ; ,, ( NCET - 08- 0104 ) ; (W T2010018) 第5期 姜艳萍等: 考虑决策者风险偏好的新产品开发方案选择方法 7 49 Bordley [ 2] , , , , 1 Kahneman T versky 1979 , , ; , [ 8] , v(x) = - :x x , x 0; (- x) , x 0 , 0 , 1, , ; ; v(x) (