虚拟母线技术及其应用（二）虚拟母线负荷预测.pdfVIP

第 34 卷 第 7 期 中 国 电 机 工 程 学 报 Vol.34 No.7 Mar.5, 2014 1132 2014 年 3 月 5 日 Proceedings of the CSEE ?2014 Chin.Soc.for Elec.Eng. DOI：10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.2014.07.015 文章编号：0258-8013 (2014) 07-1132-08 中图分类号：TM 71 虚拟母线技术及其应用(二)：虚拟母线负荷预测 童星 1，康重庆 1，陈启鑫 1，杨军峰 2，范瑞祥 3，郑蜀江 3，辛建波 3 (1．电力系统及发电设备控制和仿真国家重点实验室(清华大学电机系)，北京市 海淀区 100084； 2．国家电网公司，北京市 西城区 100031；3．江西省电力科学研究院，江西省 南昌市 330006) Virtual Bus Technique and Its Application (II): Virtual Bus Load Forecasting TONG Xing1, KANG Chongqing1, CHEN Qixin1, YANG Junfeng2, FAN Ruixiang3, ZHENG Shujiang3, XIN Jianbo3 (1. State Key Lab of Control and Simulation of Power Systems and Generation Equipments (Dept. of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University), Haidian District, Beijing 100084, China; 2. State Grid Corporation of China, Xicheng District, Beijing 100031, China; 3. Jiangxi Electric Power Research Institute, Nanchang 330006, Jiangxi Province, China) ABSTRACT: Compared to system load, bus load is more difficult to accurately forecast, as there are too many buses within the power system and the bus load is always volatile and with weak regularity. Therefore, introduction of virtual bus technique would be helpful to improve the accuracy of bus load forecasting. Virtual bus is one type of the closely connected local electric networks in the grid. The internal buses in the virtual bus share a similar load curve and have the same generation shift distribution factor to the critical transmission section. Based on virtual bus, this paper presented a novel virtual bus load forecasting (VBLF) method, which is based on clustering method. Forecasting accuracies of VBLF and individual forecasting were compared. Then, the mechanism of forecasting error was analyzed and formulated. On this basis, the effectiveness of VBLF on improving forecasting accuracy was analyzed. A numerical case using real data of Hebei South Power Grid verified the effectiveness of the proposed method. KEY WOR