政策性因素对中国股市波动的影响修改本科论文.doc

摘 要 中国股市经历了二十多年的发展，在中国社会经济生活中的地位日显重要。但是中国股市在曲折的发展过程中，也暴露出很多问题，其主要表现就是股价的大涨大跌和不稳定性。究其原因，主要是由于中国股市从其诞生的那天起就和政府的政策有着千丝万缕的关系。政策性因素对中国股市的作用主要表现为国家调控政策对股市的频繁影响，尤其是对股价波动的影响。因此，我国股市在发展过程中的一个显著特征就是“政策驱动型”。因此，政策性因素对中国股市波动的影响是主要因素之一。 本文分为四个部分。第一部分介绍了政策效应的概念及影响股市波动的主要因素和相关理论。第二部分概括了股票市场的发展状况和存在的问题，及对其分析。第三部分别从货币政策、财政政策、政治政策三个政策性因素说明了对股票市场的影响。第四部分是解决三个政策性因素对股票市场波动影响的对策。 关键词：股市波动 货币政策 财政政策 政治政策 Research on the Characteristic and Influence Mechanism of Chinese Stock Price Volatility Abstract： Frequent status in Chinas stock market has experienced more than 20 years of development, Chinas social economic life increasingly important. But the Chinese stock market in the twists and turns of the development process, but also exposed a lot of problems, the main performance is the share price rose sharply and stability. Investigate its reason, is mainly because of Chinas stock market from the birth of the day, and the governments policies are inextricably relationship. Policy factors on Chinas stock market is mainly manifested as a national regulation and control policy on the stock market influence, especially on the stock price fluctuation. Therefore, Chinas stock market in the development process of a notable feature is the policy driven. Therefore, the policy factors The impact on the volatility of the Chinese stock market is one of the main factors. This paper is divided into four parts. The first part introduces the concept and the influence of the policy effect of the stock market volatility and the related theory. The second part summarizes the situation and the problems of the development of stock market and analysis of its. Part three respectively from the monetary policy, fiscal policy and political policies of the three policy factors illustrates the impact on the stock market. The fourth part is to solve the three policy factors on the stock market volatility influence of countermeasures. Key Words： Volatility of Stock Price; GARCH model; Economic Cybernet