湖南省株洲市天元区实现基本现代化时间表研究.PDF

第 30 卷 第 6 期 湖 南 工 业 大 学 学 报 Vol.30No.6 2016 年 11 月 Journal of Hunan University of Technology Nov.2016 doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-9833.2016.06.013 湖南省株洲市天元区实现基本现代化时间表研究 魏琳琳，刘建文，戴 燕 （湖南工业大学建筑与城乡规划学院，湖南株洲 412007） 摘 要：依据我国现代化建设目标，并通过对全球中等发达国家人均 GDP 预测与天元区未来人均 GDP 发展速率预测的动态比较分析及数学模型计算，得出天元区实现基本现代化的“时间表”。研究提出，实现 基本现代化的目标是人均 GDP 达到 10 个中等发达国家人均 GDP 平均水平，同时其他相关指标达到中等发 达国家相应的水准；天元区将在 2022 — 2027 年实现基本现代化，到时人均 GDP 将达到 18 万元人民币；如 果天元区在“十三五”期间经济社会发展以较高的速率增长，则在 2020 年有望实现苏南基本现代化经济现 代化指标。 关键词：基本现代化；时间表；天元区 中图分类号：F293 文献标志码：A 文章编号：1673-9833(2016)06-0069-06 Research on the Timetable About the Realization of the Basic Modernization in Tianyuan District of Zhuzhou City in Hunan Province WEI Linlin，LIU Jianwen，DAI Yan （School of Architecture and Urban Planning，Hunan University of Technology，Zhuzhou Hunan 412007，China） Abstract：According to the goal set for Chinas modernization construction, and based on a preliminary prediction of the GDP per capita of the moderately developed countries in the world, a dynamically comparative analysis and mathemati- cal model calculation has been made for a predication of the future development speed of the per capita GDP in Tianyuan District, thus working out a timetable for the full realization of the basic modernization in this area. The research result suggests that the goal of realizing the basic modernization involves a fulfillment of the average level of a per capita GDP being that of 10 moderately developed countries. And hopefully Tianyuan district will be successful in realizing the basic modernization in 2022—2027, with its GDP reac