基于目标规划法的灰色Verhulst负荷预测模型.docVIP

Hans Journal of Data Mining 数据挖掘, 2012, 2, 21-24 /10.12677/hjdm.2012.23005 Published Online July 2012 (/journal/hjdm) Grey Verhulst Load Forecasting Model Based on Objective Programming Deqiang Zhou , Feng Xiang 1 2 1 School of Information and Mathematics, Yangtze University, Jingzhou 2 Shengli Oilfield Petroleum Development Center, Dongying Email: zdqmfk@, menglihantang@163.com Received: May 8th, 2012; revised: May 24th, 2012; accepted: Jun. 6th, 2012 Abstract: In order to overcome the defects of parameters estimation in traditional grey Verhulst model by means of least square procedure, and enhance the forecasting accuracy of grey Verhulst model in medium and long-term load forecasting for load growth in S-type or load growth being saturated, an estimation method based on least absolute de- viation, which use objective programming to estimate the parameters of grey Verhulst is presented. Then, this model is applied to long-term load forecasting, and is compared with the traditional grey Verhulst model. The results show that the method takes advantages of the benefits of least absolute deviation, which is small influenced by singular value, and robustness is good. This model avoids the defects of parameters estimation in traditional grey Verhulst model by means of least square procedure, and forecasting precision is higher. Keywords: Load Forecasting; Objective Programming; Least Absolute Deviation; Least Square Procedure; Grey Verhulst Model 基于目标规划法的灰色 Verhulst负荷预测模型 1 周德强，向锋 2 1 长江大学信息与数学学院，荆州 2 胜利油田石油开发中心，东营 Email: zdqmfk@, menglihantang@163.com 收稿日期：2012年 5月 8日；修回日期：2012年 5月 24日；录用日期：2012年 6月 6日 摘 要：为克服传统灰色 Verhulst模型中利用最小二乘法估计参数存在的不足，改善灰色 Verhulst模型在具有“S 型”增长或处于饱和增长状态的中长期电力负荷预测中的精度，提出在最小一乘法准则下，利用目标规划法估 计灰色 Verhulst模型参数的方法。对某中长期负荷进行预测，并与传统的灰色 Verhulst模型进行对比分析。结果 表明，该方法发挥了最小一乘法受奇异值影响小，稳健性好的优点，避免了利用最小二乘法估计灰色 Verhulst 模型参数存在的不足，预测精度更高。 关键词：负荷预测；目标规划法；最小一乘法；最小二乘法；灰色 Verhulst模型